2024 NCU Fantasy Baseball Season Preview
Gentlemen, we're back. After a pretty wild offseason that saw us trim two teams from the league, reorganize our divisions, and expand to FIVE minor league spots (amongst a few other changes), we are on solid footing as we head into the 2024 NCU Fantasy Baseball season. Kudos to Paul for helping guide us in this direction — he's taken a lot of crap from a lot of people, but finally there seems to be less consternation and more strategic thinking happening across the league. I'm certainly evidence of that.
I used to follow prospects really closely, but because I didn't want to take up roster spots with youngsters, I basically had zero interest in keeping them around. Now that we have five minor league slots (and four last year!), it's opened up a whole new world of roster building. Love that we have moved this direction. And I bring this up because our rankings this year have a new element: minors/draft assets.
You may be thinking to yourself, wow... great timing on that for you, Jamaal... the guy with a million draft picks and well stocked minor league system. And you'd be right, but my roster is basically pitiful when viewed in terms of 2024 projections. And never fear — I only used draft picks/minors to help determine which teams have the best in-season flexibility to make a move to improve.
Time for a few final thoughts. It's a pleasure to be in this league again, and after all of these years it feels like a privilege to be in such a long-running, competitive format with a people I like. I hope you feel the same way. I have a few friends who have lost decade-long leagues and it sucks — when I say I'm grateful for this league, I mean it!
Hope to see you around this summer, at a Twins game or another league event!
With that, let's get this preview moving.
1. Honey Roasted Peanuts
It's gotta feel good for Paul to be the frontrunner this year. If you can believe it, Paul's most recent title was 2018! Of course, he's had plenty of teams capable of winning a title since then, including an excruciating loss to Jabad's Sheep in last year's championship showdown.
This season, HRP's bats are built for murder (Acuña, Ohtani, Riley, Guerrero Jr., etc.), and when you look the pitching, top-to-bottom (including those sneaky IL guys), there's enough around to fill in the gaps on weeks where the bats scuffle a bit. With decent minor leaguers and a draft that's mostly intact, Paul's salty nuts have the assets to keep championship hopes alive deep into September.
Best case: Hoisting the trophy
Worst case: Dispatched in semifinals
2. Tres Comas
Most of us thought Troy was going to win the dang thing last year until he was unexpectedly sniped by now-departed Mayhem Like Mike in the first round of the playoffs. Well, friends... Troy is back with a freaking vengeance. There are no better bats in the league, and he proved last year that as long as he's starting seven OK pitchers, he can mow down just about everyone. Just look at it... Yordan, Soto, Machado, Semien, Lindor. Disgusting! And bad news... he's got the best minor league prospects around (Crews, Jenkins, Caminero, Salas), who he very well may sell off for draft picks or legit arms to propel him into a place where a 2024 title is the only possible outcome.
Best case: Third title in five seasons
Worst case: First-round exit
3. Jabad's Sheep
Hail Jabad, our defending champion! His magical 2023 netted a fourth NCU Baseball championship, something we've only ever seen in NCU Football (shout out to Lidds!). Jake's longevity in our league and ability to put together ferocious contenders again and again is basically unmatched. Though I believe Paul would love to make his own case for best owner of all time. Show us the regular season winning percentages again, Paul!
At any rate, Jake is seemingly not done at all, with a downright nasty infield (Witt Jr., Olson, Albies, Devers) and blistering pitching staff led by Gausman, Skubel, Wheeler and Steele (oh crap... hamstring!!!). Prospects and picks? Looking good — he's got his full complement of draft selections for the next two seasons, PLUS top prospects in Roman Anthony, Cole Young and others. Don't sleep on Jabad's title defense.
Best case: Back to back, baby!
Worst case: Disappointing first round exit.
4. Strange Brew
There's a lot to love about Nick's team this year. But let's start with the problems. Nick has ZERO draft coming up the next two years. And he's sold off prospects (besides two top 50 dudes named "Colt"... what are the odds of that same name TWICE??) to build the best possible roster for this season. Kudos to him for building the thing up to the point where title contention is a near-certainty... but if injuries befall him, he'll have a ton of work to do trading from considerable pitching depth. Which brings us to the good stuff.
Strange Brew is loaded, boys. He's got an incredible outfield (Julio, Tucker, Carroll) that's probably the best in the league. Not to mention his mainstays in the infield — Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, and freaking Mookie Betts. Once they pummel you, nasty 1-2 punch Castillo/Burnes clean you up. Plenty of quality SP depth follows. You've been warned.
Best case: Nick works without a net and finally breaks through for his first title
Worst case: First-round flop
5. 800 lb. Gorilla
We've got a glut of teams in the middle this year, and Lance's Gorillas are at the epicenter. It's such a fun, young team... he's got a glorious mix of younger studs (Chourio, Rutschman, Royce Lewis (already injured!), Gilbert, Luzardo) and vicious vets (Judge, Harper, Hader) that will almost definitely have him in playoff contention. Feels like there's not quite enough hitting to carry him this year, but his mix of picks (he's got more than you'd think) and prospects (Jackson Holliday, #1 overall prospect + Mayo/Painter, etc.) create a scenario where selling off for 2024 glory could materialize.
Best case: A beautiful run to the semifinals
Worst case: Miss playoffs
6. Tigerfoxx
After some time getting his team in position, Rausch is ready for prime time. I love his prospects (Lawlar/Wood) and he's got the best 2024-ready (not on the IL, no lingering questions) pitching in the league. With just a little more on the hitting side I would have slid him ahead of 800 lb. Gorilla, but ultimately had to slot him at #6 because it just looks a bit weak — a high ceiling/low floor situation.
But good Lord... Bieber, Eflin, Darvish, Fried, Webb, Bassitt, and Joe Ryan, bringing up the rear. Regardless of what you think of Ryan, he still put up 500 points last season after completely falling apart as he pitched through injury for a couple of months in 2023. This is a filthy rotation, ya'll.
Best case: Make playoffs!
Worst case: Miss playoffs!
7. Papelbon's Bulldog
I actually had Lance and Ryan rated super similarly, but Lance edged him out with more lucrative draft/prospect assets. But make no mistake, these teams are very even. There's pitching talent everywhere — many won't appear until midseason...Cole, Scherzer, DeGrom — and yet there's plenty to torture us until they return. Clase. Strider. Rodon (presumably). My sense is that this will be a middle-of-the-road lineup that has some SICK headliners (Bregman, Harris II, Trout)... could easily be enough to make the playoffs, but everything has to align for 2024 to be a Disney® kind of finish.
Lidds' draft and scouting department are in great shape... but Luisangel Acuna and Marcelo Meyer may be on the trade block if the Bulldogs need fuel for a playoff run.
Best case: Rides resilient (and utterly dominant) pitching staff to a championship
Worst case: IL chokes him out
8. Warriors4Life
I see Strange Brew-lite here. Great lineup, good pitching, and very little in the way of draft/prospect backing to help him load up for a playoff run. Yamamoto and Merrill Kelly are a pretty nice combo up top in the rotation with Mitch Keller backing them iup, but there's just something I don't trust about so many others. This looks and feels very much like a team that's built to win now but will not win now based on the strength in the top half of the league.
I imagine Ryan will put up a bunch of points on some weeks, but completely tank in others... the inconsistency will do him in, leading to a collapse, sooner or later.
Best case: Playoff berth!
Worst case: Doesn't make playoffs, unable to recreate this roster in 2025... death spiral commences
9. Toast 4 Tatis
When I started these rankings, I assumed Scotty would be top four, but as the analysis commenced, his team slipped down the list. Lots of question marks in the rotation outside of Kirby/Buehler (whenever he arrives...). More maybes than mashers in the lineup. Alcantara/Ray not making appearances until 2025. But we know Scott is a silent assassin. He works the wire, keeps his draft intact, and has a few nice prospects in the pipeline (looking at you, Jackson Jobe), so there's a strong playoff possibility if things break right.
But when you look at all of the obstacles in front of him, it's easy to see a team that — even when scratching and clawing — may struggle to keep its head above water.
Best case: Sneaks into playoffs
Worst case: Buehler and Tatis never really round into form, T4T tumbles to a sub-.500 season
10. 1st Place Luzar
Very good arms. Unspectacular bats. Not a recipe for making the playoffs in this league, this year. I could see Caleb saddling up atop Peralta, Cease, Gallen, and Nola... but after that, even if I squint, I can't envision a playoff run. The 1st Place Luzar lineup is just SO young that it becomes difficult to project sustained performance. Maybe in 2026, but not right now.
Caleb isn't in horrific shape at all — a stable of well-thought-of prospects (Gilbert, Collier, Jones) and the immaculate '25 and '26 drafts make it so he could strap on a jet pack and foreseeably add offense to boost playoff odds. A team to root for, but only because you know they're not a threat.
Best case: Finishes just out of playoffs, starts 2025 with an eye on a title run
Worst case: Wastes minor league prospects and picks on a failed 2024 playoff push
11. Garbage
I'm a little unclear about what Jake is trying to build here. Not a lot in the way of prospects. Draft is in good shape. Not enough happening with the bats. Vanilla pitching. Feels like Jake would need to sacrifice future years to make anything of note happen right now. So... tread water, then? Looks likely, unless Jake is currently orchestrating major midseason moves. Otherwise, guys like Trea Turner and Arozarena will be rotting on a non-contender.
That said, I love the younger fellas — Nolan Jones, Hoerner, Raleigh, Stott, Bibee. But I hate it for Jake — he's in roster purgatory, and it's not clear when he'll be moving up toward contention or down toward a rebuild.
Best case: Every optimistic player projection comes through, Garbage loses playoff berth tiebreaker
Worst case: Holds older veterans through 2024 trade deadline, franchise sinks into deep and enduring malaise
12. Madison Muskies
Guys, as much as it pains me to say it, the Muskies straight up stink.
This year.
But the shift in strategy has been well documented. A team that was for years founded on trading next year's picks for current year contention has undergone a metamorphosis. Now with a bag full of draft picks — four firsts next year, 10 total picks in Rounds 1-3 — and waves of prospects (Skenes, Langford, Clark, Shaw, etc.) set to crest in 2025/26, it feels like a sustainable turnaround might be happening.
For 2024, there's not a lot here other than the shell of last year's playoff roster in Buxton, Correa, Hoskins... and that's about all. The past has been detonated. Now we'll see what emerges from the ashes.
Best case: Plays late-season spoiler as young players blossom early
Worst case: Spends draft picks on a playoff pipe dream
Comments
Post a Comment